According to the United States Census, large urban counties next to metro areas over 1 million residents were the fastest growth areas in 2014. The population of rural counties declined. Census data of the nation’s 3,142 counties indicate 4.2% growth from 2010 to 2014 for counties in metropolitan areas of over 1 million persons, ranging down to 1.4 percent for non-metro counties adjacent to a metro area with an urban population of 20,000 persons. Counties with lower population, primarily with rural locations, all had negative growth during this period.
Every component of population change is driving growth in the big-city counties. Natural growth (births over deaths), international migration (movers from other countries) and domestic migration (movers from other parts of the United States) all were contributing to growth in the big-city counties. Of course, many of these large urban counties were losing traditional suburban characteristics and acquiring urban characteristics, including higher buildings, wider streets and improved mass transit.
What does this trend mean for American cities? First, the population growth around the urban core includes movers from the inner city as well as natural growth and migration from other domestic and foreign origins. Consumers are attracted by new housing choices in growth suburbs and retail outlets follow the population growth at the expense of declining retail demand in central cities. Similarly, many employers decide to re-locate to emergent suburban growth areas where their employees have moved. Likewise, civic, education and religious organizations follow the trend with new buildings to serve the new residents.
The second major shift in uses is expansion of circulation facilities for personal vehicles as well as bicycles and public transportation in the urban counties. Although many public transit routes may still converge on central exchange centers in the cities, the target employment buildings increasingly attract residents back to suburban locations. Waste disposal and energy demand also are shifting from cities to suburbs.
This development movement trend to urban counties is generating empty buildings and infill sites in most major cities across the United States. Central city population and employment densities are declining concurrent with increasing metropolitan population. Property values are decreasing in city neighborhoods as they rise in surrounding urban counties.
Some metropolitan areas bordering on waterfront have countered the above trends with building height limitations and related zoning restrictions in urban counties adjacent to the waterfront attraction. But most local governments have welcomed the additional tax revenues from higher growth.
Regional planning agencies have recognized the unequal growth disbursements and have been proposing growth equalizer adjustments. But, consistent with American tradition, private investors and developers follow the most profitable locations; locations which inevitably yield to higher public costs for new infrastructure and transportation. These costs generate higher local taxation and pressure on politicians for state and federal cost-sharing.
The logical response to the above trends is public-private partnerships that promote center city re-development. “Turn lemons into lemonade.” The prospects for such far-sighted growth response appear pessimistic, but sporadic re-development examples of public-private partnerships are emerging in several cities. I will endeavor to report on the most noteworthy examples in future monthly blogs with the hope that they may spur some of our readers to become interested in active profit-seeking involvement in center city re-development.
If you would like to explore further details on this or other blog articles, please contact Dr. David F. Parker at (904) 992-9888, or david@parkerassociates.com or go to www.parkerassociates.com to read more about what Parker Associates can do for you.
Dr. David Forster Parker
May, 2015
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